Happy New Year.
I'm getting all the same "really excited it's 2011" tweets, blog posts and emails you are. I'm really pleased that so many people are looking forward to the new year. It's also cool to see others being zen and thankful as well for what 2010 brought them...we all have a lot to be thankful for.
I'm an optimist at heart...really...I don't think you can be a true entrepreneur if you're not an optimist. Sometimes, you have to smoke your own rope just to keep going. But after 20+ years of doing this, I have also developed a fair degree of "cautious optimism" and a healthy degree of paranoia (see Andy Grove). My personality definitely consists of large doses of both Grumpy Old Men and the Dude (minus the drug abuse, "man").
So, it strikes me as somewhat lighthearted, and perhaps a bit foolish that I see signs of bubble-like frothiness in the software business again. I'm no Noriel Roubini, but things feel a little wonky to me.
Here's why my knickers are bunching-up:
The Consumerization of Enterprise Software
It used to be that the software we employed for work was dictated by our organization, and the procurement process was somewhat orderly (read slow and cumbersome) and predictable. Selling into these organizations required skill, patience and experience (and the resulting bag-carrying, highly-commissioned salesperson).
Just like other industries that are being upended (music, publishing, television, advertising, etc.), enterprise software is changing due to software now being pulled into the organization by end-users and adopted at work because of the ease of acquisition/adoption/use and the low (if any) cost.
This represents a complete 180 from the "olden days" (as my 9 year-old likes to say). Or, as I've heard a little too much in the past year a "total 360." [Never quite understood how people miss the fact that a doing a 360 represents landing where you started...oh well, another blog post perhaps.]
Generational Differences within the Enterprise
The web has been around long enough now that you can see clear differences between people in their 40's and 50's and the next youngest cohorts. Growing up with the personal computer (Jesus, does anyone call it that anymore?), the web, mobile phones, Skype, and the like have created different expectations of autonomy, privacy, engagement, leadership...you name it. And settling for the previous era's enterprise software tools doesn't sit very well.
Minimum Viable Products for the Enterprise
While there is a huge opportunity to revisit mature enterprise software segments to gut them of their feature-fat and value-lacking complexities, there still needs to be enough thought and base-level of feature functionality so as to actually deliver meaningful value for the organization. I love the simplicity of many of the mobile and web apps I'm seeing out there today, but if I have to cobble 10 of them together to actually get something useful done at work, then I think we might be trending a little too far toward the Minimum part of Minimum Viable Products.
Importance and Influence of Mobile and Tablet Software
I think I read somewhere that 50% of Fortune 500 companies had purchased iPads for piloting enterprise implementations in 2010. Not sure of the source, or even if that's true. But if it is remotely correct...holy flying pails of cow dung.
Regardless of the veracity of those figures, there's no doubt the take-up of mobile applications has been huge, and the influence and importance of that movement has huge implications for enterprise developers like us.
The Insignificant (and continuously falling) Barriers to Market Entry
Given the global level of connectivity and the (seemingly) zero cost of the tools of production it doesn't take much for someone to launch themselves into the software business. Any barrier to entry that used to exist 10 years ago (other than market knowledge/subject matter expertise) should probably be seen as zero.
The Instability of the Global Economic Recovery
Okay, I'll admit it. Sheepishly. I have some post secondary education in Economics. Fairly useless mind you, but some theoretical understanding (hence useless) of how economic systems are supposed to work. And this makes me very nervous about our current global situation. I just don't see how societies around the world can amass such huge levels of personal and government debt without long-term implications. I guess I skipped that part of my undergrad classes.
Despite the above, there are many reasons to be optimistic about opportunities in the Enterprise Software market. But I think you'd be equally daft to ignore the signs that it isn't all rosy and there are significant challenges to succeeding in these turbulent times.
So, a cautiously optimistic Happy New Year to my Enterprise Software brethren.
(Wow, that was a crazy stream of consciousness post....I'll have to elaborate on each of these items in future posts as I've just skimmed the surface).